Altagamma-Bain Market Monitor: The Crisis Accelerates the Transformation
According to the recent Altagamma Bain Worldwide Market Monitor, the annus horribilis 2020, presented on 18th November last, will close with a global luxury market downturn of between 20 and 22%, with personal luxury goods (fashion, jewelry, accessories, cosmetics) reaching -23% on the base scenario.
The forecasts for 2021, however, expect an average recovery in the personal luxury goods sector of around 14%. Matteo Lunelli, President of Altagamma, said: «2021 will mark the start of the recovery although a gradual return to pre-crisis levels is forecast as of 2022.
The Consensus Altagamma estimates an average double-figure growth for all sectors of 14% with consolidation of digital retail (+22%) and the Chinese market (+18%), the authentic defending champion of the crisis. How companies react to the huge changes in progress will be crucial. Greater investments will be required as well as incentives with public investments in research, training, digitization and green transition.
High-end could be the driving force of our recovery if it is placed at the center of development strategies and recognized as a distinctive element of Italian Soft Power, or rather, the core that identifies our image in the world, » Lunelli went on to conclude. Going into detail, the jewelry-watch segment, which has been more greatly impacted by the post-Covid crisis due to the lack of travel retail and the difficulty in recreating the in-store experiences that the product often needs online, is forecast to grow by +12%.
On the other hand, jewelry from highly-appealing brands and with a strong presence in Asia will perform better. As for distribution channels, in a normalization scenario, physical retail is forecast to increase by +15% but must necessarily be integrated with digital, which is forecast to grow in 2021 by 22%, while digital wholesale should increase by +18%. Lastly, the Altagamma-Bain Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor 2020 expects that the personal luxury goods market will maintain a positive growth trajectory throughout 2021, returning to pre-crisis levels in 2022-2023.
Federica Frosini, Editor in Chief VO+